North Texas health experts are watching COVID-19 trends as cases spike in Europe and Asia

As COVID-19 cases decline in North Texas, case numbers are spiking in Europe and Asia, led by omicron subvariant BA.2. Texas health experts are closely watching virus trends abroad, but they say there’s little concern the BA.2 variant will lead to a dangerous spike in the state.

First detected in December, BA.2 is a more-contagious sub-lineage of the original omicron lineage, called BA.1. While it is not yet the dominant variant in the U.S., BA.2 has been in North Texas since late January, when UT Southwestern Medical Center researchers confirmed its presence through genetic sequencing.

The omicron variant caused a historic surge in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in early 2022. Its rapid spread throughout the U.S. likely will protect most Americans from severe illness caused by BA.2 because the sub-variant responds to omicron antibodies, said Catherine Troisi, an infectious disease epidemiologist with the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston.

“The good news is the vaccine protects you against BA.2, and a previous infection with omicron protects you at least somewhat against the BA.2 variant,” she said. “So, even if we do see an increase in cases because of BA.2, we’re not expecting to see a big increase in hospitalizations and deaths.”

Scientists at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimated in February that about up to 80% of Americans could be immune to omicron by mid-March. That could prove helpful as BA.2 becomes more prominent in the U.S.

As of the week of March 6, BA.2 represents about 11% of U.S. COVID-19 cases, up from just 1% in the week of Jan. 30, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported.

If BA.2 starts to spread more rapidly in North Texas, it’s possible that the trajectory at which COVID-19 cases are decreasing will slow down, said Dr. Trish Perl, chief of infectious diseases at UT Southwestern. As of now, local researchers are monitoring the spread of the variant in the area and in other countries.

The latest reporting puts Dallas County’s 14-day new case average at 422 cases, down from a 14-day average of 590.

Many U.S. cities have adjusted back to near-pre-pandemic living in recent weeks as cases slowed. The CDC lowered its mask guidance for most healthy Americans, and Dallas County dropped its mask mandate in areas other than jails, homeless shelters, long-term care facilities and health care settings.

The spread of BA.2 in the U.S. shouldn’t impact that trend toward pre-pandemic normalcy unless there’s an increase in hospitalizations, Troisi said.

Overcrowded emergency departments and overworked health care staff are getting some reprieve with the dip in coronavirus cases after four COVID-19 surges in two years. Experts say that, because of the community’s stronger immunity against omicron, the health care system likely won’t take much of a hit from BA.2.

“While it is possible, I don’t see this being a surge that has a significant impact on our health care system in North Texas,” said Erin Carlson, associate clinical professor and director of graduate public health programs at the University of Texas at Arlington.

“Who this really predominantly impacts are people who are medically vulnerable,” she said.

The vaccine offers less protection for some groups, including people who are immunocompromised and people older than 65, because their immune systems are less able to generate antibodies that protect cells against COVID-19.

Pfizer plans to seek emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration for a second booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine for people 65 and older. The CDC already recommends that immunocompromised individuals receive a second booster shot.

At-risk groups may want to continue wearing masks in public spaces if BA.2 spreads more in North Texas, Carlson said.